Gold M&A Heats Up as Copper Supply Tightens | Joe Mazumdar

Joe Mazumdar, Editor & Analyst at Exploration Insights, joins Kitco Mining’s Digging Deep from the Rule Symposium 2026 to explain why mining M&A is becoming more competitive as quality production assets become harder to find.

Mazumdar says the competing bids for Vault Minerals show that buyers are willing to pay up for scarce producing assets rather than take on permitting delays, capital escalation, and labor risk. “They would rather pay a premium on production,” he said. But he is also watching whether the next wave of deals moves into development-stage assets with the highest probability of becoming mines.

Copper is part of the same scarcity trade. Mazumdar says Chinese buyers remain active in Peru as smelters compete for limited concentrate and major mine disruptions tighten supply. In Yukon, Talamore Mining’s C$588 million Coffee financing shows how stranded assets can be revived in a stronger market. In Arizona, South32’s Hermosa has cleared a key U.S. permitting hurdle, though capital intensity remains the bigger test.

Recorded July 09, 2026.

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00:00 - Welcome and Setup
00:26 - Gold M&A Bidding War
01:32 - Shift to Development Deals
02:27 - Peru Copper Sale to China
04:04 - China Smelters and Supply Crunch
05:26 - Coffee Project Financing Revival
07:42 - Hermosa Permitting and Fast 41
09:37 - Rule Symposium Takeaways
11:01 - Closing and Subscribe
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this podcast are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this podcast do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:05

Hello and welcome to Kitco Mining's Digging Deep with me, Paul Harris, in which we take a closer look at some of the more interesting news items in the mining and exploration space. Today is Thursday, July the 9th, and we are live in person. Well, not live, but we're in person at the 2026 Rural Symposium in Bocca Ratoni, Florida. Joining me today is Joe Mazumdar, editor of Exploration Insights. Joe, welcome back to Kitco. Thanks, Paul. We are going to start off with some gold MA in Australia with Regis making a bid for Vault Minerals and then Genesis Minerals came over the top with a $5.6 billion Australian bid, which is about $3.9 billion in the American money. Competing bid for uh we haven't seen that really in the uh in gold MA for quite a while. Does this suggest that MA is hotting up, Joe?

SPEAKER_00 0:54

Yeah, MA has been around for uh the last uh let's say 18 months to two years, uh, and most of it has been consolidation as people try to move up market cap and get more liquid. So this is goes on with that sort of thematic. The counter bid suggests maybe in terms of supply and demand, there's not a lot of other assets out there for them to acquire to make that next step, uh, hence the uh the bid on top of what um what was it, Regis made. So I I think in the end we'll see more consolidation as permitting timelines around people are worried about capital escalation, labor issues, so they would rather pay a premium on production.

SPEAKER_01 1:36

Okay. I've spoken with both uh Rick Ruhl and Rob McCuin here, and they both think we're are going into a more aggressive, a more active MA cycle. Would you agree with that?

SPEAKER_00 1:46

I think we've been it. I I think we've seen a lot of MA, but most of the MA by stage has been more on production, less on development. And so what I'm looking for, I I've seen it in the copper market that uh, you know, with Arizona Sonora getting taken out by an intermediate producer, that we've seen development plays getting acquired. Now it'd be interesting to see some of these development plays getting acquired in the uh precious metal space as opposed to more production. What um what I I think is gonna be happening here is that the the development assets that have the highest probability of coming into production are the ones that will eventually get acquired. It won't be everything will get acquired, it'll be those specific assets and those specific suitors that get acquired.

SPEAKER_01 2:31

Okay, there has been more MA in the copper space, in the development space. Uh very prescient of you to mention that. Uh, London-based CD Capital sold the Los Calatos Copper Millionum Project in Macwegua in Peru to state-owned Chinese miner Chinalco for about 200 million US dollars. CD was advancing a project there to develop an underground mine to produce 60,000 tons per year of refined copper for 24 years. Joe, you've recently been in Peru, you've visited a number of projects, you've been to conferences there. Um, another copper project goes to a Chinese company. Seems to be quite a quite a trend there.

SPEAKER_00 3:05

Well definitely, I mean uh Peru and and a lot of Latin America um has the benefit of having competing bids between Chinese and also Western companies. Peru also has a lot of, it's got a lot of big companies, your Glencores, your Anglo-American, Tech, uh Rio Tinto, and that uh producing mines there. But they also do exploration, and then also the Chinese are there doing the same thing. But also the Chinese are building uh ports and more infrastructure for the same mines, the same thing they do in Africa, they're doing in places like Peru and also in Brazil. So I've seen a lot of movement of illegal mining in not only gold but also in copper. So even the smaller throughput mines attract attention from from Chinese companies because they're they're I mean, given the level of TCRCs, there's not a lot of concentrate out there suggesting that anything right now uh that's near-term development might get acquired.

SPEAKER_01 4:08

Okay, is there perhaps a sense of desperation on the part of the the Chinese smelters or the China looking to supply its smelters in perhaps a I won't say they'll buy anything because I don't want to sort you know disrespect Los Calatas or C D capital, but um they're they're they're perhaps Yeah this this created a liquidity moment for CD capital that's probably been holding on to that asset for for a long time.

SPEAKER_00 4:30

But I would say that you know uh uh China, you know, in terms of uh copper is doesn't dominate like it does a lot of critical minerals, but it is trying to grow its smelting capacity with the idea of having more copper. Uh but problematically, the more they build up smelting capacity, which is actually the demand for concentrate, the more they drive the TCRCs down. They're almost competing against each other. So they've slowed that expansion, but still there's enough capacity out there, and there's been issues with, you know, obviously Cobra Panama went offline and that was 1.6, 1.7% of global production. We had issues with Kamoa Kakula reducing guidance. We've had uh, you know, Grassberg as well. So a lot of big mines having either gone offline or having reduced production that and they all produce concentrates. Uh uh, and so that makes the smelters think that there's not enough out there. So trying to secure more is important.

SPEAKER_01 5:30

Okay, uh going back to gold, Talamon Mining announced a $588 million Canadian financing package to fund the development of its coffee project in Yukon. Um, positioning coffee for a construction decision in early 2027. Um, Joe, coffee that was the the project that Caminat worked up and then sold to Goldcorp. Uh Goldcorp was then bought by NewMont. Under Newmont, the uh the advancement of coffee. Well, it continued, but the the development prospect of the project stalled. Um, so this would seem to be a big deal for you, Con. That the fact that the funds now been raised, the project looks like it's going to be built.

SPEAKER_00 6:05

Yeah, so uh that project was one of the uh ones in in Newmont's list of divestitures that took almost two years, multi-billion dollar sales, it did very well. But one of the assets that had no bid was coffee. They couldn't give it away. And the market has changed. Uh, and what we see is a lot of groups being able to raise capital and buy these uh stranded assets out of uh majors. Usually people want uh producing company, uh producing assets, but now they're going to near-term development uh because there was already a feasibility study. I think they already understand the metallurgy well enough. It was an open pit heap leach with a high strip uh near Dawson. Uh so there's a lot of but the ability for them to raise that kind of capital there is good. I mean, this is probably a project that could be run diesel as opposed to requiring grid power, like let's say obviously like a casino, which is a major project, or some of these other ones that would be a major throughput. So infrastructure is always an issue in the Yukon, but that one might get around it. Um then there's obviously the permit with water and proximity to the river and everything like that.

SPEAKER_01 7:21

Okay. Um I you know, Newmont did a lot of work, a lot of technical work on the project, so it does seem that Talamor is getting something that's been advanced to quite a I would say Gold Corp did more than Newmont.

SPEAKER_00 7:32

I think when Newmont got it, I don't think they prioritized it as much as Gold because Gold Corp was the acquirer, and Newmont ended up with a lot of assets that Gold Corp had been acquiring prior to that, and uh a lot of those were divested.

SPEAKER_01 7:46

Okay, more positive news on the development front this week as South 32 received approval from the Trump administration. The agency's there for its $2 billion Himosa zinc silver project in Arizona. I got the final federal environmental review uh for the key infrastructure on public land, so it looks like that one can go ahead and be built now. Um, Joe, this would seem to be again great news for South 32, great news for Arizona and uh uh the Himosa project. Um, but I guess one of the questions is you know, is it is is it done yet? Because obviously a lot of projects in the United States, once they're permitted, they then face a rough of uh uh lawsuits and this, that, and the other trying to stop them.

SPEAKER_00 8:27

Yeah, uh trilogy was the ultimate example, and that probably had one of the best leverages to the Trump administration coming in of any asset. It ended up getting its permit reapproved to build that 211-mile road from uh uh Dalton Highway to the project, the Arctic project and the Bornite project. So I think under FAST 41 permitting is much faster, much more transparent, and the ability for an NGO or a third party to come in and kibosh a project is more difficult than it was before. Um uh uh against the BLM. I think the BLM here now will fight more against that than they did in previous administrations.

SPEAKER_01 9:13

If if I remember correctly, I think Hermosa was the first project that was brought into the FASCO.

SPEAKER_00 9:18

Fast 41, yeah. It was one of those high priority projects because not only do they have uh zinc, but I think a near near surface they do have some manganese as well, which is also in there as a critical and metallurgically a little bit more complicated, but uh that's something else they have. Uh the issue there is more that it's it's mostly underground, it's the capital intensity on that project that's probably a bigger issue.

SPEAKER_01 9:41

Okay, well let's wrap up with uh a question about where we are. We're at the rural symposium. Um, it's a four-day event. There's a lot of companies here, I think there's at least 50 issuers here. It's been uh uh very high profile um keynote speakers here. What have been some of the standouts for you at the event, Joe? In terms of the speakers?

SPEAKER_00 10:02

Well, your overall experience with the event. Well, I mean, I've been coming to this, I think this is my fourth time, third or fourth, fourth, I think, uh, and it's grown. It's grown with the entire sector. Uh, you know, uh where we're sitting, this was basically only media, but now the last years and now that there's been a lot more companies. And then in terms of uh people walking uh uh around here, they spend a lot more time uh uh within the symposium watching the speakers. And then as I talk to companies, the flood of people come out and then they're all asking questions, and then they have a you know, then they're watching and then they come back again. So there is that cyclicality, but they're from what I'm talking to companies, everybody's very keen. Uh they all take a lot of notes. Um and and this is one of those conferences where these companies actually can see buying on the back of a meeting. There's not a lot of conferences out there for the retail sector that that can boast that.

SPEAKER_01 11:04

Well, it seems to be very, very positive. Uh, from a sort of personal point of view, it's great to be able to sit down and do one of these in person, so I appreciate that. Uh Joe Mazumdar, thank you very much for joining me today. Great, Paul. Thank you. And of course, to our viewers, if you like what you see, don't forget to hit that subscribe button. This is Paul Harris, digging deep, I keep go mining.