The 'Air Pocket' Risk: How Geopolitical Tensions Are Impacting Mining Operations | Neil Adshead

Neil Adshead, Consultant Analyst at the Commodity Discovery Fund, joins Kitco Mining’s Digging Deep with Paul Harris to unpack the recent price slump in precious metals, and how gold and the mining majors are performing amid the Iran war.

“The long term supply/demand for commodities is in place, but if this war really does damage the global economy significantly, then we could be in for quite a longer ‘air pocket', let's call it a bit of a trough,” he warned. 

Adshead also discusses a range of significant recent mining developments, including the impact of Barrick’s production delays in Pakistan, the Newmont-Barrick dispute over the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, the significance of the ongoing buying spree by Chinese mining majors, and which government strategies are most effective for increasing exploration.

Don’t forget to subscribe to the Kitco Mining & Kitco News YouTube channels to stay up to date on the latest industry news and interviews.

00:00 - Introduction
00:46 - Metals Price Slump
02:20 - Is Gold Still a Safe Haven?
04:12 - Barrick Production Delays 
07:25 - Newmont-Barrick Nevada Dispute
10:42 - Anglo Gold’s Arthur Project
16:03 - Chinese Miners’ Buying Spree
18:32 - Liberty Gold’s Black Pine Project
23:24 - Government Strategies to Increase Exploration
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this podcast are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this podcast do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Kitco Mining, Digging Deep with Paul Harris.

SPEAKER_01 0:04

Hello and welcome back to Kitco Mining's Digging Deep with me, Paul Harris, in which we take a closer look at some of the most interesting news items in the mining and exploration space. Joining me today is Neil Adset, consultant analyst at the Commodity Discovery Fund. Neil, welcome back to Kitco.

SPEAKER_02 0:20

Thanks, Paul. Looking forward to the chat.

SPEAKER_01 0:22

Well, Neil, let's say that with fingers crossed because we're going to start with the elephant in the room, which of course the metals price dump, which has seen the GLD fund flows plummet by$6.3 billion in March. I guess the question on many investors' lips, Neil, is whether this is a short-term aberration and pain and a long-term buying opportunity or something more sinister, more profound.

SPEAKER_02 0:48

Well, I'd say, I mean, the long-term thesis obviously looked pretty good before war broke out several weeks ago. Obviously, the challenge with a big war like this is that you never know which way it's going to go. We're hearing lots of rhetoric from both sides. Who really knows what's really happening when the two sides are talking to one another? I I saw an old quote this morning, somebody said that you know the the uh first thing that basically uh is lost during a war is is is the truth. You know, so it's a bit of a challenge to understand what's really going on with this war. And clearly it's had a a bit of an airpocket on all sorts of metal prices, equity prices, etc., over the last two to three weeks. What's it gonna look like in two weeks, what's it gonna look like in two months or two years, it's impossible to say. The long term, you know, supply-demand for commodities is in place, but if this war really does damage the global economy significantly, then we could be in for quite a longer uh rather than an air pocket, let's call it a bit of a trough.

SPEAKER_01 1:53

Okay, some of the commentary I've been reading, a lot of people question why you know gold is supposed to be this safe haven asset, which uh supposedly does well in risk, but obviously when the Iran conflict started at the beginning of March, uh gold sold off, gold has sold off, it's lost you know more than a thousand US dollars per ounce. You know, people liquidate, go to the US dollar. Uh at what point does the the safety net of gold really sort of come in?

SPEAKER_02 2:20

Uh I think it becomes back to you know, it goes back to being an insurance vehicle, let's call it, once uh the world settles down again a little bit. I think people buy and hold it for you know long term. The the one of the assets, one of the benefits of gold and one of the downfalls of gold, I suppose, is that it's a very, very liquid market, same with the gold equities. Uh so that when there is a challenge and you have to meet some bills elsewhere, or you have to meet even a margin call, gold is always a thing that you can sell very quickly. Plus, it I often find people are very tempted to sell their big winners when they have when they run into trouble. Um, so gold is maybe getting a double whammy. You know, we've seen it now hit hit a floor. Um, it's picked up a little bit. Again, it's it seems to whipsaw with the rhetoric from both sides. Impossible to say what's going to happen in the in the coming weeks and months. Uh, but I think long term the the outlook for gold is uh is still very positive.

SPEAKER_01 3:20

Okay, thank you. Now let's move on to type-lit barrack mining that has not officially commented onto breaking news stories. First up, the London Financial Times reported today that Barrack has paused construction of its 50% owned$9 billion recordic copper and gold project in Pakistan due to a worsening security situation in the region, with a rise in separatist violence in Balochistan, the province where it's building the project, and presumably the difficulty of flying its personal in and out of the project due to regional airline hub disruption in the Middle East due to the Iran conflict. The day potentially means that first production will not begin until 2029. Um, Neil, I imagine few people would be surprised by this news, i.e., um, violence disrupting development in Balochistan. And in the background, can we perhaps hear a course of people saying, I told you so?

SPEAKER_02 4:14

I suspect so, yeah. I'd be amazed if Barrack didn't expect uh some kind of you know local security challenges at times, because even if you just read the the general media from that from that part of the world, that there has been a sort of a secessionist war for the uh Bluchistan people to you know leave Pakistan essentially and create their own homeland. Um Barrett was always going to be a bit of a target for that. You know, security was always going to be challenging. Not to say they couldn't build a mine and keep their people secure in that part of the world, uh, but I suspect they always at some point would cross some threshold whereby they wouldn't want to send their workers there, or uh the workers actually wouldn't want to go there. You know, so if enough if enough senior personnel or their families are saying, you know what, with with with a war going on in the Middle East where there's lots of bombs and drones dropping on different countries, uh maybe I prefer it if you know mum and dad stay at home. So I I suspect maybe some of this may have even been driven by the employees or the senior employees not necessarily wanting to go there as well. So I'm not surprised by it. I I don't think it's terminal for the project. I suppose, again, it's so much uncertainty in the world right now, it's impossible to say when that might get resolved, that security situation.

SPEAKER_01 5:31

And of course, the the broader security situation sees Pakistan engaged in a conflict with Afghanistan, which is the country that borders Balochistan directly to the north. Neil, will this cause Barak to perhaps hit the accelerator but accelerator button of spinning out the North American assets, you know, good bunny barrack and leave into a new company and leaving sort of bad bunny barrack to to you know lick its wounds and wait for a better time?

SPEAKER_02 6:00

I I don't think it'll change it. I think those two um those two endeavors, let's say, are running in parallel. You know, one probably doesn't really impact the other. Um the spin out of the North American assets, I believe it's started. Uh how far down that process they are, I'm not sure. Guarantee it'll take several, well, I'll take many months and probably several quarters. So I doubt even it was going to happen this year, you know, just just due to all the paper filings, etc., or the disclosure they're gonna have to do. So I I suspect that's gonna happen regardless of what happens in the spin out in North American assets, it'll happen regardless of what happens in Pakistan.

SPEAKER_01 6:39

Okay. Now, one thing that could uh elongate the times there is the dispute that Newmont has raised with Barak about uh the Nevada gold mines joint venture and Barak's uh perhaps lack of focus on on that. Um Barak has had a difficult week. It's got its AGM next week, and the shareholders there will have a lot to discuss, not just Pakistan, but also this spin-out. Uh, because another news story that Barrack hasn't commented on officially is revelations that tech resources holds a 10% net legacy profits interest over an area that includes a meaningful part of Barrack's four-mile discovery. Barrack has failed to talk about this. Um, Neil, why or how would Barrack forget or overlook to mention this in its September 2025 four-mile preliminary economic assessment news release?

SPEAKER_02 7:28

This would seem to be very you know, I I don't really know the answer. Uh there's various scenarios. Um Barrick maybe didn't even know about it, interestingly. Uh tech might not have even known about it. Maybe that the existence of this royalty only came out because Barrick is going through this North American asset IPO process at the moment. So maybe somehow it got unearthed at that point. You know, tech is not really known for having gold assets in Nevada, so it I kind of wonder how much tech knew about this as well. And if you go back, and uh I th I think the original disclosure was in a globe and mailed media article by a you know a well-known Toronto journalist. It wasn't it didn't come out from any other source, didn't come out from Barrack, and it didn't come out from tech. Um obviously a 10% MPI, I think it ultimately jumps to 15% after six million answers are produced. Um sounds great on paper, but an MPI, there's ways the operator, the mine operator can you know do accounting so that that doesn't sound as onerous as what um it might sound at first glance based on the on the 10 or 15% headline number. Uh plus, you know, Barrett's gonna have a lot of capex here, that a lot of that capex will have to get repaid maybe before this MPI really kicks in. So even though tech owns this this MPI, we believe I've not seen any evidence that that they've got the documentation for it. It just came out of this media report. Um maybe tech doesn't receive a dollar for for 10 years. I'm not sure. You know, when when you look at 4Mile, the first hole into 4Mile was over 10 years ago. You know, Barracks only just got to the point where they've released a PA. You know, that they tell us they've done a PA, but they didn't actually fully publish the contents of that PA. There's no kind of MPV IRR numbers and there's no technical report. So we're just sort of guessing at what Barrack's inputs were in, you know, all their inputs in that PA. So, you know, it's a great news story for the journalist in Toronto to break that story, so to speak, but there's still so much uncertainty as as to what that royalty is ultimately worth.

SPEAKER_01 9:42

I think one of the aspects there, Neil, is that um, you know, Barrack announced its PA in September, and here we are six months later. And as you mentioned, the the company still has not filed a technical report uh on that. Um, further south in Nevada, Angler Gold Ashanti issued a technical report summary for its Arthur Gold project to produce 500,000 ounces per year at an all-in-sustaining cost of 954 US dollars per ounce from an initial mine year mine life following a$3.6 billion initial capital investment. It has reserves there of 4.9 million ounces, and it plans to use conventional open pit methods and a crushed heap bleach circuit. Um, Neil, Arthur I think continues to surprise to the upside, and I think it would be fair to say that so far Angler Gold Ashanti has um had flawless execution in terms of aggressively drilling the project, buying up the smaller juniors to get the district land position it requires, and we're we're we're seeing the results of that now in what it calls definitely a tier one discovery, a tier one project. What's your view of Arthur?

SPEAKER_02 10:46

Well, I did a bit of a review of it independently for for another exercise recently, and it's quite a fascinating story because Anglo is backed, Anglo basically backed Corvus for essentially 15 years, sorry, about about 12 to 13 years before they acquired Corvus in that district. But through that relationship, they made their own discovery by optioning a project from Renaissance and then basically tidied up the land positions, they bought Augusta, they took out Corz piece in the area, they bought Corvus, uh, did a lot of drilling themselves, made some great discoveries themselves, and it's just it just shows actually the value of perseverance. And even in a very mature, I'd call it a very mature jurisdiction like Nevada, you can still find open pittable oxide gold deposits in the millions, and in the case of Arthur, it probably at least 10 to 20 million ounces there, but it does take a long time, it takes a lot of money. Anglo probably spent at least a billion US dollars getting to this point, and they're still several years away from generating any kind of revenue from it. So, hats off to Anglo, you know, great discovery. I believe they won the PDAC sort of Discovery of the Year award this year, and it was well deserved.

SPEAKER_01 11:59

I guess this talks to the adage that um good disc good deposits aren't discovered, they're made, and as you stressed there, Neil, there's been a lot of work over a number of years to put this together. Um, leads me to my next question. Angler Gold is a relative newcomer in Nevada. I think it only really sort of got boots on the ground, if you like, in around sort of 2020, 2021, despite that uh ongoing relationship with Corvus Gold. In Nevada, we've also got the presence of big miners like Barrack Mining, Newmont, Kimros Gold, Core Mining. How did this uh district near Beattie pass so many majors by for so long?

SPEAKER_02 12:37

Well, Core had a piece of ground to the south. Um the deposit is in the the sort of deposit cluster because there's four or five deposits that that make up the ultimate uh mineral resource estimate, that the total resource estimate. Um the Walker Lane in that part of western Nevada is always seen as sort of a lowish grade, smallish deposit uh setting. And it was just uh yeah, truly persistence, you know, good expiration, funding juniors, funding drilling through the bear market, you know, through the sort of 14, 15 grim times, and just staying there and keep keep writing the checks and keep learning about the geology, partnering with uh good groups of locals, and it mostly doesn't pay out. But in this case for Anglo, and credit to them that they stuck with it, and it was a bit of a slow burn. Uh, but you just had to sometimes you really do need that uh persistence and perseverance and keep writing those checks. And yeah, I I'm happy for Anglo, I'm happy for Nevada. You know, it's turned into a significant big new deposit for the United States, and um, yeah, um, celebrations all around. I'm happy for them. It just it just didn't happen overnight, yeah, and it never does.

SPEAKER_01 13:51

But it all came together, 5 million ounces grading, I think about 1.5 grams per ton, which is uh you know very, very producible grade in Nevada. Let's move on. Xijin Gold acquired a 26% stake in Ryjual Chiffing for 2.6 billion, and it's also due to close a 5.5 billion Canadian acquisition of allied gold in April. Um, Neil, Xijin really seems to be pushing to become one of the world's largest gold miners.

SPEAKER_02 14:17

Correct. Yeah, interestingly, I don't know if you're an economist reader, The Economist magazine, but roughly a month ago there was a there was a full article on Zijin, how Zijin had come from basically a startup in 1993 to today, I believe it's the sixth largest gold producer in the world, and a lot of people forget it's actually the fifth largest copper producer in the world as well. It's turned into a significant, I'd call it a you know, a super major global mining company kind of up there with your BXPs and your Rios rather than your you know big bigger than a barrack. Um so yeah, credit to them. It's it's come from nowhere, it's primarily an acquisition strategy. Obviously, they they've sort of ridden the wave of metal price increases in in recent years, and they've been very aggressive. If you look at the Economist article, there's a there's a chart there showing the frequency of acquisitions, and they they've really picked up in the last couple of years. So sometimes the acquisitions work in your favor, and you get good time in the market and you buy them well and then operate them well, sometimes they don't. Zijin has proven that they're they're very good, very good acquirers all around the world, some countries that other maybe Western companies wouldn't go to, uh, but it's turned out very well. It's turned into this um Chinese uh mining major, let's call it.

SPEAKER_01 15:36

Okay. And it's not just Xi Jin that's um buying up assets. A number of Chinese companies, I'm thinking China, Molybdenor, Seamok, Shanxi, um, Xi Jin, they all seem to be moving quicker to buy up assets than their Western counterparts. Given the uh evolving critical minerals narrative is now all pervasive. What why do you think that is? When will we see the Western counterparts, the Western companies perhaps start to get more aggressively on the buying program?

SPEAKER_02 16:06

I'd like to see the data to see if the Chinese companies are more aggressive than, say, American companies or Canadian companies or Australian companies. Uh I'm seeing lots of MA in the in the Toronto stock exchange and you know in Australia, so it's not, I don't think it's just the Chinese doing these transactions. Maybe some Chinese companies are a little more willing to go to places that let's say a little bit scarier for not necessarily even the Western companies. Maybe the those Western companies are a bit concerned what their shareholders might think. If they pop up and they've just bought an asset in Kyrgyzstan, for example. Whereas I don't think the I don't think the Chinese reaction to that to that level of country risk is uh is as averse to it. So I I think they're just a bit more nimble or able or willing to go to, let's call them, tier two, tier three jurisdictions that that the Western companies that that I have uh interacted with recently, they they all tend to want to buy stuff in what they call tier one jurisdictions. You you're sort of North America's and your Australia's Chile, you know, that that kind of place. So that's probably uh an aspect to it, in that the Chinese companies that are going to these jurisdictions and there's much less competition.

SPEAKER_01 17:23

Well, I imagine the the Xiang shareholders are perhaps a lot less jittery than some uh Western shareholders, to your point there, Neil. Um, another acquisition this week, Heliostar Metals acquired the advanced 1.2 million ounce gold strike project in Utah for Liberty Gold for$72.5 million, mostly in deferred cash payments. Neil, two things about this stand out for me. One, the fact that Liberty Gold continues to sort of clear the decks to focus on the development of its Black Pine gold project, gold oxide project in Idaho. It's divested assets in Turkey, it's now divesting uh gold strike in Utah. Um, Black Pine has been accepted into the Fast 41 permitting program, and Idaho Governor Brad Little said the state will work in tandem with the federal NEPA permitting process, which suggests that um the the permits for black pine will be coming in a relatively short order. Uh Neil, Liberty seems to be getting a good head of steam behind it and the development of black pine. It must be quite refreshing to see this for a US project. I saw elsewhere this week that uh the average time to permit and develop a mine in the United States is one of the longest timelines of any jurisdiction in the world.

SPEAKER_02 18:35

Yeah, I think strategically it's it's a good move for uh Liberty. You know, they had, as you said, they had assets in Turkey, which they managed to completely exit. Uh they had Gold Strike in Utah and uh Black Pine in in Idaho. And it's nice as a junior to have several assets that that you try and advance as fast as possible, but usually one of them always sort of rises to the top. And the best thing to do if you want to get that that asset into production is to then ideally, if you can, sell the other asset. So I think this is a very good deal for Liberty. Uh you know, it's essentially an all-cash deal, but mostly deferred cash. So it gives Helio the time to sort of raise the capital either through the market or raise it through through cash flow from their operating mines. And it also allows uh Liberty's management to focus entirely on pushing uh Black Pine through the permitting process because it does take a can take a long time in the United States, as we've seen with Stibnite in in Idaho as well, which if I'm not mistaken took something like eight or nine years by the end of the day. Now, I'm not saying, not suggesting that's gonna be the same for Liberty, um, but yeah, it's good. It's good to see some of these gold mining projects in the US being pushed forward. Um, also, you know, Dakota's doing a good job there in Dakota Gold in South Dakota. So, yeah, looking on the horizon here over the next five to ten years, there's gonna be several independent gold companies, you know, with single asset companies putting mines into production. And as we've seen around the world, single asset developers producing 200 to 300,000 ounces a year generally get picked off pretty quickly by the uh bigger boys.

SPEAKER_01 20:14

Thank you. The the second aspect of this news item that struck me was about Heliostar, which is uh seems to be um advancing or looking to grow aggressively. It's done a number of deals in the past year or two. It's paying$60 an ounce for Gold Strike, which has a PEA preliminary economic assessment for 90,000 ounce a year of production. Um Neil, Heliostar really does look like it has the intent and the desire and the will to really grow into a meaningful mid-tier gold producer.

SPEAKER_02 20:43

Yeah, Charles Funk has done a has done a great job there. I've known Charles a few years, even from back when he was a youngest geologist at Newcrest. Uh, and then he was really took over Heliostar when he was advancing an early stage gold project in a in a remote Alaskan island. Didn't really work out, and now he's pivoted to sort of Mexico, picked up some of the old mines off when Argonaut was bought by Alamos. Um and now he's picked up this, uh he's got the Anapola project as well, and now he's got another development asset to put into his pipeline. Yeah, he's done it, he's done a great job. He's building a building a company here, you know, with let's call it tier two, tier three assets. Uh rising gold price helps hugely. And uh I wish him well. Yeah, he's he's he's basically built this company essentially from nothing, and he's uh growing into a he's got a decent pipeline now to grow into a you know a junior at the moment, but could become a mid-tier gold producer in the next five years or so.

SPEAKER_01 21:39

Thank you. Let's finish by uh turning to Peru, where legislators introduced a bill to limit the time miners have to explore their concessions, seeking to reduce the concession time from 30 years to 15, a type of use it or lose it proposal. Entrench mining interests are unsurprisingly up in arms at the prospect as they like the city. And hold model which benefits them. Neil, are such legislative measures necessary to encourage more exploration, to encourage more work by presumably trying to make more ground available for exploration companies?

SPEAKER_02 22:14

Yeah, 100%. You know, fundamentally, I am an exploration geologist. That is my background. And the first rule of exploration is secure access to the land. And if if you go to a jurisdiction and the land is all tied up with individuals who, well, one, you might have you might need to do 20 deals to secure a piece of land big enough, uh, which is a challenge. Um, or those individuals, for whatever reason, may not want to deal. So as long as they keep paying their fees and taxes, you basically closed out of that jurisdiction. So as a junior explorer, you you go somewhere easier. So, yes, it is a it is a big deterrent to exploration to have individuals who can just sit on licenses for generations, essentially.

SPEAKER_01 22:57

Okay. One elephant in the room that Peruvian legislators are not looking to address in this is the fact that it can take up to two years to get drilling permits in Peru, which really does slow down exploration efforts. Uh Neil, would it be more if, you know, what do you think is the most effective strategy for a government looking to increase exploration, increase exploration spend, increase the chance of discovery, with a view of being able to increase the project pipeline going forward?

SPEAKER_02 23:28

Well, I'd say all of the above, as in what you mentioned there, that you do need to be able to pick up the land before you can do anything. So you need to be able to get access to the land. And I I know of some jurisdictions around the world which I will not mention at the moment that were, you know, great jurisdictions 15, 20 years ago, and today I see no juniors there just because it's become very difficult to secure any kind of land position. Um, yeah, definitely on permits. Nobody investors really don't like it when you give a junior a million dollars and the junior says, okay, we're going to drill some holes in six months when we get the permits, and then two years later they still don't have the permits, and they've spent a million dollars on GA and they never drill a hole. Uh that makes it very unattractive jurisdiction to put any money into it again. Now, unfortunately, permit permitting is taking longer in general around the world. You know, the US, for example, is trying to speed that up. Um, Peru would be advised to try and follow that kind of strategy as well. And you know, I'm not saying juniors should bypass you know interacting with local communities and environmental rules, etc. But there does seem to be a slowness, for want of a better word, to you know, for regulators to actually issue permits just in case some sort of litigation follows soon afterwards. So ideally, somewhere along the line, that gets fixed so that permits can come a lot faster, especially at the expiration stage.

SPEAKER_01 24:52

Neil, from your experience, what are some of the better jurisdictions in terms of obtaining drill permits? What are some of the quicker jurisdictions?

SPEAKER_02 25:01

Um, this might be a surprise to people, but quite a lot of the West African nations. I mean, some of them are a little bit uh hairy right now for uh security reasons, let's say, but there are there's some great jurisdictions in West Africa, and perversely, a lot of people don't like it when the government maybe has a free carried sort of 10, 15, 20% interest in a project. But the benefit of that is that your partner in that project is the government, which is also issuing you the permits. So quite often, when you go to a West African gold project that's been built, and I'll just throw a montage out there as an example because I was at Montage uh six months ago. Uh it was almost like they were told, here's your permits, you know, get get this mine open as soon as possible, uh essentially because the nation wants the revenue and and you know and the jobs, etc., for the people and the infrastructure. So it's you kind of want that sort of supportive jurisdiction. Um, so yeah, long, long, long way of saying uh place like Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, places like that right now are um kind of appealing jurisdictions.

SPEAKER_01 26:04

Excellent. Montage Goal has the uh the Coney project in Cote d'Ivoire. Um, Neil, that's it for this week. Thank you very much for joining me today.

SPEAKER_02 26:13

Thank you, Paul. Always a pleasure.

SPEAKER_01 26:16

And for our viewers, don't forget to hit that subscribe button. I'm Paul Harris, digging deep for Kitco Mining.

SPEAKER_00 26:22

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